Wrap is a decision aid for mission planners that takes into account weather forecast uncertainty
- For mission planning and execution, commander and warfighter need to assess potential weather impacts (effectiveness and survivability) on equipment and personnel.
- Military and commercial weather forecasts are moving to ensemble (probabilistic) forecasts, making already complex information that much more difficult to visualize.
- Intuitive, easy-to-use weather-based decision aid for mission planning and execution.
- Calculates and visualizes weather forecast impacts using familiar “stoplight” colors.
- Enhanced depiction to reflect uncertainty around boundary conditions.
- Incorporates user’s risk tolerance (relates to operational risk management–ORM).
A comprehensive, innovative, weather-based, decision aid for mission planners that takes into account weather forecast uncertainty. The system will help them identify the following related to a mission, based on the weather forecasts and the confidence in those forecasts:
- When to go
- The route to take
- The equipment to use
Next Century was awarded a competitive Phase 1 SBIR contracts by the U.S. Army Research Lab to design innovative and intuitive techniques for visualizing the added dimension of uncertainty in weather forecast data, as part of a decision support tool providing battlefield weather situational awareness for both strategic and tactical battlefield planning purposes.
Following successful completion of the Phase 1 effort, for which we provided a working proof-of-concept prototype incorporating our risk threshold and what-if analysis tools, Next Century received a follow-on Phase 2 contract. In addition to addressing uncertainty visualization, the Phase 2 effort required our team to develop techniques for the calculation of uncertainty distributions for the forecast data.
Categories: Realtime Data Acquisition, Predictive Analysis, Data Fusion & Aggregation