Wrap is a decision aid for mission planners that takes into account weather forecast uncertainty

Weather Risk Analysis & Portrayal System for U.S. Army Research Lab (ARL)

The Problem

  • For mission planning and execution, commander and warfighter need to assess potential weather impacts (effectiveness and survivability) on equipment and personnel.
  • Military and commercial weather forecasts are moving to ensemble (probabilistic) forecasts, making already complex information that much more difficult to visualize.

The Solution

  • Intuitive, easy-to-use weather-based decision aid for mission planning and execution.
  • Calculates and visualizes weather forecast impacts using familiar “stoplight” colors.
  • Enhanced depiction to reflect uncertainty around boundary conditions.
  • Incorporates user’s risk tolerance (relates to operational risk management–ORM).

The Impact

  • Additional funding from Office of Secretary of Defense and Air Force Weather Agency to implement use of JEFS data and web-based version.

A comprehensive, innovative, weather-based, decision aid for mission planners that takes into account weather forecast uncertainty.  The system will help them identify the following related to a mission, based on the weather forecasts and the confidence in those forecasts:

  • When to go
  • The route to take
  • The equipment to use

iStock_000008292358MediumNext Century was awarded a competitive Phase 1 SBIR contracts by the U.S. Army Research Lab to design innovative and intuitive techniques for visualizing the added dimension of uncertainty in weather forecast data, as part of a decision support tool providing battlefield weather situational awareness for both strategic and tactical battlefield planning purposes.

Following successful completion of the Phase 1 effort, for which we provided a working proof-of-concept prototype incorporating our risk threshold and what-if analysis tools, Next Century received a follow-on Phase 2 contract.  In addition to addressing uncertainty visualization, the Phase 2 effort required our team to develop techniques for the calculation of uncertainty distributions for the forecast data.

Categories: Realtime Data Acquisition, Predictive Analysis, Data Fusion & Aggregation